NATIONAL
Age-specific, year-specific mortality estimates for South Africa between the years 1993 and 2014 are shown below.
3D (raw estimates)
2D (raw estimates)
2D (spline-smoothed)
Data Table
Data Sources
Data for these estimates is based on the following DHS surveys for South Africa:
REGIONAL
NOTE: Some regional recoding was necessary to harmonize the different surveys. The final regions used in each survey are shown in the plot below:
Mortality trends for each region
The plots below show the mortality experienced by different age groups in the different regions of South Africa.
0 - 14 years
15 - 49 years
Poisson Model
The results of the Poisson regression (using age group, time period and country region as predictors) are shown below:
| Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Incidence Rate Ratios | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.01 | 0.01 – 0.01 | <0.001 |
| Age Group: 0 - 14 | Reference | ||
| Age Group: 15 - 49 | 0.56 | 0.50 – 0.62 | <0.001 |
| Period: 1990s | Reference | ||
| Period: 2000s | 1.52 | 1.39 – 1.66 | <0.001 |
| Period: 2010s | 1.86 | 1.69 – 2.06 | <0.001 |
| Region: Eastern Cape | Reference | ||
| Region: Free State | 1.02 | 0.87 – 1.20 | 0.794 |
| Region: Gauteng | 0.98 | 0.84 – 1.14 | 0.804 |
| Region: Kwazulu Natal | 1.10 | 0.96 – 1.25 | 0.156 |
| Region: Mpumalanga | 1.24 | 1.09 – 1.42 | 0.001 |
| Region: North West | 1.20 | 1.05 – 1.38 | 0.010 |
| Region: Northern Cape | 1.13 | 0.97 – 1.31 | 0.114 |
| Region: Western Cape | 0.74 | 0.62 – 0.89 | 0.001 |
| Observations | 48 | ||
| R2 Nagelkerke | 0.999 | ||
Data table
Sources
Data was sourced from the following DHS surveys for South Africa:
Below we present the age-specific, year-specific mortality estimates for each region of South Africa between the years 1993 and 2014.