Age-specific, year-specific mortality estimates for South Africa between the years 1993 and 2014 are shown below.
Data for these estimates is based on the following DHS surveys for South Africa:
NOTE: Some regional recoding was necessary to harmonize the different surveys. The final regions used in each survey are shown in the plot below:
The plots below show the mortality experienced by different age groups in the different regions of South Africa.
The results of the Poisson regression (using age group, time period and country region as predictors) are shown below:
| Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Incidence Rate Ratios | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.01 | 0.01 – 0.01 | <0.001 |
| Age Group: 0 - 14 | Reference | ||
| Age Group: 15 - 49 | 0.56 | 0.50 – 0.62 | <0.001 |
| Period: 1990s | Reference | ||
| Period: 2000s | 1.52 | 1.39 – 1.66 | <0.001 |
| Period: 2010s | 1.86 | 1.69 – 2.06 | <0.001 |
| Region: Eastern Cape | Reference | ||
| Region: Free State | 1.02 | 0.87 – 1.20 | 0.794 |
| Region: Gauteng | 0.98 | 0.84 – 1.14 | 0.804 |
| Region: Kwazulu Natal | 1.10 | 0.96 – 1.25 | 0.156 |
| Region: Mpumalanga | 1.24 | 1.09 – 1.42 | 0.001 |
| Region: North West | 1.20 | 1.05 – 1.38 | 0.010 |
| Region: Northern Cape | 1.13 | 0.97 – 1.31 | 0.114 |
| Region: Western Cape | 0.74 | 0.62 – 0.89 | 0.001 |
| Observations | 48 | ||
| R2 Nagelkerke | 0.999 | ||
Data was sourced from the following DHS surveys for South Africa:
Below we present the age-specific, year-specific mortality estimates for each region of South Africa between the years 1993 and 2014.